Ask Brooke
// January 12th, 2010 // 1 Comment » // Baseball, General, Sports
I get a lot of various emails and facebook messages asking me about my take on various baseball and football topics. I hoped to answer some of the baseball trade talk questions last Saturday on a radio appearance, but some technical difficulties prevented me from going on. So I decided to post some of the questions and my answers to them over time here.
Q: Losers and Winners in the Baseball Offseason?
There are a few teams that could be in contention for this one including the Indians and Padres who both hired new GMs and who have each made a whopping one next to nothing trade this offseason. I’m going to give first bidding to the Los Angeles Dodgers though thanks in part to their huge inactivity as well as their front office soap opera that continues to play out. It’s not just who they’re not getting, but also who they’re letting walk out of their franchise. Randy Wolf wins 11 games last year with a 3.2 ERA and they don’t even both offering him arbitration to get the 2 draft picks for him. They also lose Orlando Hudson, Vicente Padilla, and Jon Garland, and who have they added to fill in the missing holes? A utility player by the name of Jamie Carroll, instead of putting that money into a desperately needed pitcher. I understand they’re going through an ugly divorce, which means budget slashing, but they have no cheap players ready to step in. The Dodgers were able to win consecutive division crowns by graduating and trading so many prospects that the upper levels of their farm system are completely thin and they are still in desperate need of two starting pitchers. They dealt Juan Pierre in what can be effectively seen as yet another salary dump by the team not for an established starting pitcher, but rather two minor league prospects, they’ve offered a handful after handful of minor league contracts to older guys hoping someone will catch on during Spring Training. They have fallen short the last 2 years mainly because they lack a front of the rotation starter. They should have gone after Lackey when they had the chance to be their number 1 starter. Instead they are hoping Chad Billingsly can step up and handle the top spot and admit they still remain focused on adding a starting pitcher, second baseman and bench players. When do you plan on getting around to solving those problems?
The other loser award I’d have to hand out to the Houston Astros, who work daily under the guidance of Ed Wade to distinguish themselves as the worst team in baseball, driven by a train-wreck of an offseason. At least the Indians and Padres know no trade is better than a bad trade. The Astros lose both free agents Jose Valverde, who has 25 saves with a 2.3 ERA and LaTroy Hawkins, who has 11 saves and a 2.17 ERA, their 2 best relievers are gone just like that. And who do they replace them with? Brandon Lyon, by far the worst free agent signing of the offseason at 3 years, $15 mil. Yes it’s a depressed market for relievers, but Wade should have had known better than to sign an unspectacular reliever in Lyon, who’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his career, and has proven time and time again that he’s not a closer. The Astros are willing to gamble that Lyon will get lucky next 3 years, when they could have just used that kind of money to give Jose Valverde, who is a much better reliever than Lyon, a multi-year deal. They traded for Matt Lindstrom of the Marlins who’s ERA is almost 6, granted he required no prospects of note in return, but he’s arbitration eligible and because of his terrible ’09 season, he’s likely to receive only a modest bump in salary at best. They sign 35-year-old Pedro Feliz for 3rd base who only managed 12 home runs in Philly’s park. In a team with payroll limitations, contracts like Lyon’s can be crippling. $15 mil is more than almost every team’s draft budget, and instead of investing in guys like Lyons, the Astros could have used that money, even at $5 mil a year to bolster their farm system and improve their future. Instead they’re left with a barren farm system & a team with serious offensive problems, and little help on the way.
As for winners, obviously the Phillies got a true ace by signing the best current pitcher in baseball in Roy Halladay at a guaranteed 4-5 years, and receiving solid prospects and $6 mil in return. But I’m going to put the Yankees at 2nd just head of them. Last year Cashmen built the club through free agency bringing in Sabathia, Texiera, and Burnett, and this year they’ve made substantial trade moves and that have all been excellent. Trading for Curtis Granderson, created a defensive upgrade in center field and added more athleticism. Not only did they get younger, but his left-handed bat and power to right field will play perfect in Yankee Stadium, as he should continue to hit 20-30 homers a year. They also resigned Pettite, and added nick Johnson at DH, who is an OBP monster, works the count well, and excels against left-handers. Then they add in a final surprise pick by trading for Javier Vasquez who’s handed out out 10 straight years of 190 innings or more and 10 wins or more, and is coming off his best year in Atlanta with 15 wins, and a 2.8 ERA. He’ll be the Yankees 4th starter, where in some places, like say Citi Field, he’d be the number two guy.
Have to put Seattle at the ultimate top of the winner’s block this offseason. Their solid, forward-looking GM has, in under 2 years, turned the Mariners from the bottom of the scrap heap to a legitimate contender for the AL West in 2010. Obviously anytime you get a player like Cliff Lee you’re going to improve your club. At best Lee leads Seattle to a division crown, gets to play in a pitchers park with great defense behind him, and potentially signs a long term deal. At worst, he plays for a year, the Mariners don’t make it into the postseason, but they get 2 first round picks as compensation when he leaves. Hard to find a downside to the deal. And the Mariners will now have a one-two punch in the top of their starting rotation in Felix Hernandez and Lee that can really shut down teams. Last year Seattle finished last in OBP in the AL, so they picked up speedy Shawn Figgins. A guy who leads the AL in walks last year, and creates a top two in the lineup with Ichiro that combines two of the best leadoff hitters in the AL, minus Jeter. And in case they weren’t doing well enough Seattle trades Carlos Silva and $9 mil to the Cubs in exchange for Milton Bradley. Effectively dumping a terrible pitcher, whose contract was a sunk cost as they were planning to release him anyway come spring training, for a few million and a couple years to see if Milton Bradley can keep his anger in check and his bat in the lineup. If he doesn’t work out who cares they just release him, but he may be worth the gamble considering he is only a year removed from 22 home runs and 77 RBIs for the Rangers and unlike the Cubs, the Mariners have a DH spot to keep him healthy. Add in some defensive additions in the forms of Casey Kotchman at 1st, and Frank Guiterrez at center field and anyway you look at it, this will be a true race in the west between the Angels who have done little this offseason, the Rangers who have some talented young pitchers, and the Mariners who could take the whole divison.
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